By Ishaal Zehra
Received with a mixed response,
the long and greatly overdue decision of complete departure of US forces from
Syria and Afghanistan has excavated some uncomfortable truths. Ever since the
US president has announced an exit from these war-webs, the pro-military media
of US has started bombarding a common man with articles and reports from worthy
war-journals telling us how this decision will engulf peace from this already
not-so-very-peaceful world. But I say, let’s face it. Let’s not kid ourselves.
American presence in both the countries “will not” and “cannot” help change the
situation at ground. Whether its ISIS or Taliban, you cannot control them with
the presence of a paltry number of American troops around. The same will
continue to loaf in Syria and Afghanistan for some more time, where this NATO
and ISAF check might not limit but encourage the group’s nefarious undertakings
in the name of foreign boots on grounds.
Indeed, ending this quagmire is
not simple. To leave? Or to stay? Or when to leave? And why to stay? All these
decisions must be made in support of a well-crafted exit policy. Interestingly,
a US think tank dealing with defence and security issues, in their recent
report, warns the US leadership that exit from Afghanistan will pull entire
region into Afghan conflict. RAND, in the latest report on Afghanistan titled
“Consequences of a Precipitous US Withdrawal from Afghanistan”, warns president
Trump not to decide exit of the US Forces from Afghanistan in haste. An early
withdrawal, the report argues, will cause the insurgents to lose interest in
negotiating peace with the United States. Report also causes speculations of a
chaos in the region where regional players will likely exert pressure in
support of respective groups. The subsequent consequences calls for an overly
sensitive debate.
Although US’s longest war in
the history has remained highly unpopular in the masses since its beginning yet
Afghanistan is not so easily dismissed. As a matter of fact, a vast majority of
Americans do not actually know what is going on in Afghanistan today. They are
fed by articles and reports meant to show the side that actually suits the
underwriters. The headlines and opinion sections of big news giants may carry
reports on air quality or on an anti-corruption campaign in Kabul disregarding
the actual conditions of the combat raging in and around Kabul because
reporting in the war areas is simply not possible in such mounting war
conditions.
While hawks in US military
along with their supporting politicos in Afghan government have been grumbling
on Trump’s war-exit policy, their reasons for this holler are somewhat
different from what is reported by the media. While the afghan puppet
government don’t want to let go on power and money gains of this war, the US
military wing views Afghanistan, acknowledged by few intellects, as one pillar
in a broader regional web of US surveillance over the whole of the greater
Middle East. Geopolitically, Afghanistan is located conveniently close to “the
soft underbelly” of Russia and China, and also Iran. That’s why they would want
selective intelligence and military capabilities in South Asia for many years
to come.
Robert D. Kaplan rightly say
that no other country in the world symbolizes the decline of the American
empire as much as Afghanistan. There is virtually no possibility of a military
victory over the Taliban and little chance of leaving behind a self-sustaining
democracy — facts that Washington’s policy community has mostly been unable to
accept. But it seems president trump had anticipated this well, hence entered
the office with the promise to end this fruitless US venture where his security
establishment has been opposing his exit strategy since onset.
However, president Trump’s new
approach of reaching out to the Taliban carries a lot of sense for the people
of affected region as well as for the entire world. Most importantly for masses
of Afghanistan and Pakistan, worst affected by the war. The truth is that no US
strategy in Afghanistan has worked this far. Reports suggests that in recent
years the ISIS-Khorasan has probably become the strongest and largest ISIS
affiliate outside Syria and Iraq. Apparently, it has set up shop in the
mountain ranges of Afghanistan bordering Pakistan which means that the heat of
US-ISIS fiasco might have to be tolerated by Pakistan as well, willingly or
unwillingly.
Reworking the exit policy the
US has sought Pakistan’s help in facilitating the peace talks with the Taliban
where the latter has offered its unstinting support and help. The process has
gone well so far with minor hiccups. What we need to understand is that the
Taliban, who control more than half of Afghanistan are actually in the dialogue
from a position of strength. And only a better understanding in between
the US and Taliban (backed by the regional players) can help bring stability in
the region. Meanwhile, gradually declining in size, the US should continue with
its financial support and engagement to help war ravaged economy of Afghanistan
for some more time. While, the Afghans should sustain the patient hope that
their country will stabilize and strengthen over time.
