The Afghan Islamic
Movement, Fidaee Mahaz, has claimed that Mullah Omar died two years ago.
However, the Taliban have rejected these rumours. It appears the ground is
being prepared for making public appearance of Mullah Omar a possibility in the
near future. This would certainly add to the credibility of the peace process
and speed it up. The Afghan peace process has apparently taken a definitive
shape and a predictable route. Years of behind-the-scene work is paying off and
Pakistan stands absolved in the context of its stance and support for the peace
process. However, caution is due. In a state of excitement Pakistan should not
accept the responsibility of guarantor, which it may not be able to deliver.
Afghan officials had
sat down with the Taliban cadres for their first declared face-to-face round of
parleys, on July 07, in Murree. Both sides agreed to continue the talks with an
aim to find a peaceful end to Afghan crisis; this drew wide spread praise.
Officials from Pakistan, China and the US also participated in the talks
indicating that all major stakeholders have convergence of perceptions. Earlier
in May, Army chief during his visit to Kabul, had assured President Ashraf
Ghani that Pakistan would bring the Taliban to the negotiating table. “The
second round of talks… is set for July 30 or 31,” said Mohammad Ismail
Qasimyar, a member of the Afghan High Peace Council (HPC). He said China would
“most probably” be hosting the meeting.
Earlier this month,
Taliban’s supreme leader Mullah Omar said he supported ‘legitimate’ peace talks
aimed at ending the war. Though Mullah Omar didn’t mention the July 7 session
in his traditional Eid message, many believe that his reference to ‘political
endeavours’ pointed towards these talks. The Eid message indicates a paradigm
shift in the views of the Afghan Taliban leadership on war and peace in
Afghanistan. The statement has also radiated a balanced outlook on various
international concerns like education and statecraft.
Mullah Omar’s
statement has reignited hopes for peace talks. “Concurrent with the armed
Jihad, political endeavours and peaceful ways for achieving these sacred goals
are a legitimate Islamic principle and an integral part of Prophetic politics,”
Mulla Omar said. “As our holy leader, the beloved Prophet (peace and blessings
be upon him), was actively engaged in fighting the infidels in the battlefields
of Badr and Khyber, and at the same time he participated in agreements
beneficial for Muslims, held meetings with envoys of infidels, sent messages
and delegations to them, and on various occasions even undertook the policy of
face-to-face talks with warring infidel parties,” he added. His approval of peace
talks marks a clear deviation from the earlier uncompromising position about
interaction with the Kabul government. This statement has effectively put to
rest the guessing spree about the legitimacy of talks.
However, all is not
well on the Taliban side, divisions have grown within the conglomerate after
the first round of direct talks. The split within the Taliban between those for
and against these talks has been compounded by the emergence of a local branch
of Daesh in Afghanistan. Daesh’s on ground successes, continue to attract
defectors from Taliban cadres.
Another raw aspect
is that despite the willingness to engage in peace talks, there has been no
let-up in militant attacks on foreign and government targets. According to
statistics compiled by an American-led coalition official in Afghanistan,
casualty rates of Afghan National Security forces (ANSF) are up by 50 percent
compared to last year. Over 4,000 soldiers and police-men have been killed and
nearly 7,800 wounded, while months of heavy fighting is still to come.
In March 2015, the
commander of US Forces in Afghanistan, General John F. Campbell, testified
before House of Representatives Armed Services Committee on the war and combat
readiness of Afghan security forces and also discussed Afghan losses, he
stated: “A high ANDSF [Afghan National Defence and Security Forces] attrition
rate…has had an impact on combat readiness. If present rates continue, it will
pose challenges to force development over time. The main causes of ANDSF
attrition are assessed as poor leadership; high operational tempo; inadequate
soldier/police care; and poor force management”.
Afghan security
forces are struggling to maintain a military stalemate with a defensive
mind-set; thus they are slowly losing ground to militant forces. They rarely
mount combat patrols, what to talk of retrieving territory from Taliban.
According to John Sopko, the special inspector general for Afghanistan
reconstruction (SIGAR), a number of troops and police-men are not dependable.
Moreover, a US Department of Defence report released in June 2015 also concedes
that performance of ANSF “was uneven” during combat operations. It predicts
that casualty rates will “increase in the next several months.”
Under these gloomy
conditions, General Johan F. Campbell called on Army Chief General Raheel
Sharif on July 23. The US general acknowledged Pakistan’s sincere efforts in
combating terrorism and facilitating Afghan peace process. Campbell appreciated
gains of the ongoing Operation Zarb-e-Azb, which were helping the cause of
peace and stability in the region. He also acknowledged Pakistan’s sincere
efforts for facilitating Murree peace talks. Much depends on the outcome of
these talks, and if successful they could go a long way towards bringing peace
and stability to the region.
Pakistan has said
that it is willing to “go the extra mile”, however there is a considerable
trust deficit between Pakistan and Afghanistan that is not likely to evaporate
overnight. Several current and former officials in Afghanistan question whether
Pakistan genuinely supports dialogue. “Pakistan is taking this new step under
internal and external pressure,” said former Afghan interior minister Umar
Daudzai. “We have to wait and see whether the step is of a tactical nature or
is a genuine policy shift.”
There are
influential factions within Afghanistan that have no stakes in the success of
peace process; indeed, some like the continuation of current power sharing
arrangement to attain permanence. President Ashraf Ghani is facing severe
criticism internally for its rapprochement with Pakistan. There is no
foreseeable end to Indian wheeling dealing. Iran is also quietly strengthening
its proxies and waiting for the opportune time. “India is very sceptical about
this entire thing,” said Sameer Patil, fellow for national security studies at
Mumbai-based think tank Gateway House. He added Delhi felt it had been
side-lined from the process.
Some Western
diplomats, long sceptical about Pakistani promises, say Islamabad now seems
serious about promoting Afghan stability. “This is the most genuine push we
have seen from Pakistan,” said one diplomat. According to the Afghanistan
Strategic and Regional Studies Centre, the Taliban’s growing political
activities could be viewed as a rejoinder to mounting pressures it is receiving
from Pakistan. President Ashraf Ghani has welcomed the Murree process and is
hopeful that the talks would lead to restoration of durable peace. “The whole
nation wants peace. During the past 14 years we tried to hold face-to-face
talks but could not succeed. But it has happened now.” Ghani said. He has
called upon the Taliban to come up with a list of their demands at the second
round of talks.
Pakistan is striving
to live up to its principled stance on peace process. However, it would be
unfair to assume that it exercises control over the Afghan Taliban. The start
of talks is a positive step, but much could still go wrong. Peace process needs
a whole-hearted support from international community and an unflinching UNSC
underwriting. It’s time for the P-5 to join the effort and evolve a strong
system of guarantors.
