The valley
has seen sharp bursts of civil unrest continued recruitment to militancy and a
loss of faith in political processes.
Over eight
days in December, three civilians were killed in three separate gunfights in
Kashmir. Two of them were young women who leave behind daughters under a year
old. The third was a driver in Kapwara, allegedly caught in the crossfire. The
tally of casualties rises when you count the militants killed, the protestors
injured. Days later, four soldiers were killed at the Line of Control in North
Kashmir.
The year
2017 has ended as it began in Kashmir, with slow bloodletting and sporadic
protests. The summer of unrest that started in 2016 never really ended, though
the tidal wave of mass protests and strikes that lasted months may have petered
out. The shape of violence changed this year. Gunfights between militants and
security forces took place almost daily. Civil unrest usually erupted in short,
sharp bursts, concentrated around specific events: an encounter, and election,
a spate of alleged braid chopping.
Despite
government efforts to restore what it terms “normalcy” to the Vallery, the
defining image of Kashmir in 2017 remains that of shawl maker Farooq Ahmed Dar,
tied to the front of an Army jeep and used as a “human shield”
The numbers
tell their own story. Militant and civilian fatalities were the highest in four
years, the Lok Sabha was told earlier this month. According to government
figures, 203 militants and 37civilians had died till December 10, while 75
security forces personnel were killed in the same period. There were 335
militancy-related incidents in 2017, according to government data. Later, the
Rajya Sabha was told that incidents of stone pelting had dropped from 2,808 in
2016 to 1,198 till November this year. In November, SP Vaic, director general
of police, Jammu and Kashmir, declared a “90% drop” in stone pelting since
2016.
Yet a
survey by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project reveals a
surprising graph of unrest. The number of protests and riots in Kashmir rose on
average between 2016 and 2017, setting at 10 times higher in August than they
were in June 2016, the month before Hizbul Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani was
killed. Curiously enough, according to this graph, civil unrest peaked in May,
rather than in the thick of the 2016 uprising.
As for
militancy, Wani’s death galvanized the local youth, who joined up in large
numbers during the unrest of 2016. In October 2016, security agencies had estimated
that 250 foreign and local militants were active in the Valley. In spite of
heavy casualties after the Army launched “Operation All Out” to crush armed
groups, informal police estimates put the number at 200, if not more. According
to reports by security agencies, later disputed by the state police, at least
117 youth had joined militancy till November 30, the highest in eight years.
If civil
unrest, militancy and political activity are taken to be the three indicators
of peace in the Valley, none looked good in 2017.
Civil
protests: Back on the streets
By November
2016, as the streets emptied after months of protest, armed encounters began to
pick up. This brought crowds to the streets again, pelting stones and shouting
slogans in order to help militants escape. Encounters in South Kashmir in
February and Central Kashmir in March claimed several civilian lives. When
bye-elections for two Lok Sabha seats came around in April, public anger was
running high again.
As crowds
poured out to protest on the day of the Srinagar bye-election, security forces
opened fire, killing at least eight civilians. When the internet, which had
been blocked during the election violence, was restored, videos started
circulating: a teenager in Budgam who seemed to have been shot at close range
near a polling booth, Central Reserve Force. Police personnel being heckled by
protestors and the famous “human shield” videos, which sent shock waves across
the valley.
The
bye-polls led to a surge in protests, which might explain why the graph peaked
around May. For the first time in years, protests started emanating from the
Valley’s campuses, where student politics had been proscribed for years. Female
students in urban centres like Srinagar and Anantnag became a visible part of
these daily demonstrations.
September
and October saw a new flashpoint for public anger: mysterious incidents where
masked men were said to have attacked women and cut off their braids. As
rumours of a conspiracy by state agencies circulated,vigilante groups patrolled
the streets. The protests were directed at the government, which had failed to
contain the alleged incidents.
Militancy:
Shifting patterns
If the
charismatic Burhan Wani had rallied support for his cause, this year saw a
decline in the brand of militancy that he had popularised through photographs
and videos on social media. Of the 11 militants posing for the famous picture
of Wani and his men, nine are now dead and one has surrendered. New militant
videos on easily accessible social media forums are now comparatively rare.
While the
Hizbul Mujahideen still remains the largest militant group, other outfits have
also gained ground. Several new militants joined the Lashkar-e-Taiba and, after
years, the Jaish-e-Mohammed made a comeback in Kashmir. In May, Zakir Musa
broke away from the Hizbul Mujahideen to form the Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind,
believed to be al Qaida’s Indian cell. In many parts of the Valley, Musa is now
considered the figurehead of the militancy, with crowds chanting his name at
protests as well as cricket matches.
While the
militancy seems to have grown more fragmented, groups across the board lost top
commanders. In May, Sabzar Ahmad Bhat, believed to be the Hizbul Mujahideen’s
operational commander after Wani’s death, was killed in an encounter. The
Lashkar’s former divisional commander in Kashmir, Abu Dujana, was killed in
August and then his successor, Abu Ismail. Most recently, Noor Mohammad
Tantray, the Jaish-e-Mohammad commander in South Kashmir known for his
diminutive stature – he was rumoured to be only three feet tall – died in a
gunfight.
As the year
wound to a close, a spate of surrenders were reported and videos showed
families asking their militant sons to return. But this does not, as yet,
promise a reversal to the trend of growing militancy.
Most
worryingly, there was a shift in the pattern of militant attacks, which had
previously been restricted largely to security targets. A widening circle of
violence claimed politicians from parties that contest in elections, unarmed
Kashmir soldiers’ home on leave and pilgrims on their way back from the
Amarnath Shrine.
These
attacks, together with Musa’s declared allegiance to al Qaeda and the
appearance of Islamic State flags in the Valley, led many to speak of a
hardening in Kashmiri militancy. The armed struggle in the Valley, it was
speculated, was increasingly identifying itself with global Jihad. As of now,
there is little to suggest that such ideas have made more than limited headway
in Kashmir, where both civil protest and militant violence are directed
primarily at the Indian state and its excesses.
Politics:
year of discontent
Part of the
disaffection may stem from the complete failure of democratic politics in the
Valley. The Lok Sabha bye-elections this year, which grew violent, saw a 7.14%
voter turnout. During re-elections in 38 polling stations, this number dipped
to 2.2%. Elections to the Anantnag Lok Sabha seat – that fell vacant after
Mehbooba Mufti gave it up in April 2016 to become the chief minister – have been
postponed indefinitely. While high voter turnouts are a poor indicator of
political statements in the Valley, these elections revealed how deep the anger
against the government ran.
Mufti and
her People’s Democratic Party had already lost ground after they tied up with
the Bharatiya Janat Party to form the state government in 2015. After the
protests of 2016, Mufti became the face of a government that endorsed the use
of pellets on unarmed crowds and looked away as civilians were killed. As
militancy gained ground, members of mainstream parties were targeted and many
declared their resignations in public.
The centre,
for its part, maintained a silence that was filled by the Army chief’s
aggressive bluster. Apart from an unofficial delegation led by BJP legislator
Yashwan Sinha, little attempt was made at dialogue. By the time the Centre
announced an interlocutor for talks, former Intelligence Bureau officer
Dineshwar Sharma, an embittered Valley was not moved. From the start, the talks
were narrowly defined, and it became clear that the government was not even
willing to consider greater autonomy within the ambit of the Constitution,
never mind other political possibilities.
The
separatist leadership largely boycotted these overtures; the National Investigation
Agency’s simultaneous crackdown on and incarceration of senior leaders of the
Hurriyat did not help. While it was seen as an attempt to discredit the
Hurriyat, it also cast doubts on the government’s sincerity about holding
talks.
But the
year closed with confidence building measures announced by the state
government, reportedly at the instance of the Centre: amnesty for first-time
stone pelters and jobs for pellet victims. Will these measures soften the mood
in the Valley and restore confidence in democratic politics? The state
government seemed to think so, as it scheduled panchayat elections for February
2018.
